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Trafalgar Polls. discussion . I've seen some posts about Trafalgar, particularly with their most recent Florida poll today. So as someone who routinely dissects polls, I wanted to just break things down a little more and shed some more light on this pollster.
USEFUL LINKS Twitter: https://twitter.com/UnbiasedElecti2 Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/unbias 2020-09-21 2020-10-27 MI Nov 1, 2020 Presidential Poll TOTALS (with leans) Donald Trump 48.3% Joe Biden 45.8% Jo Jorgensen 1.7% Someone Else 1.3% Undecided 3.0% See Report Here In 2016, its first time publicly releasing polls, Trafalgar was the firm whose state surveys most effectively presaged Mr. Trump’s upset win. That said, Trafalgar is not the only contrarian voice in polling. Several other pollsters have joined it in arguing that other pollsters are missing pro-Trump voters. 2020-09-16 2020-11-04 2020-10-13 In the Pennsylvania poll, conducted Oct. 24-25, Trafalgar asked 1,076 likely voters, "If the election or president were held today, how would you vote?" (Trafalgar Group) In response, 46.7% of likely voters in Pennsylvania said they would vote for Trump; 45.8% said they would vote for Joe Biden -- roughly 1% difference between the two candidates.
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Det är fullt T /08, rue de la Loi, 200, B-1049 Bryssel, fax (32-2) , e-post: Internet: europa, eu. int/en/comm/dglo/infcom/epo/polls.htmi Newsletter for the European Year sönder på Trafalgar Square.
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A new Trafalgar poll has Democrats leading in both key Georgia Senate races. Jon Ossoff leads Republican Senator David Perdue 50.4 - 47.4%. Raphael Warnock leads Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler 49.6% to 48.8%. If Democrats win both races, 2021-04-12 2020-11-02 A new Trafalgar poll shows Republican Georgia Senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler in tight races against their Senate runoff opponents.
2020-10-31 · The Trafalgar Group’s Rob Cahaly — who predicted Trump’s 2016 victory — claims most Americans dislike responding to polls consisting of 25 or more questions. Updating the Trafalgar Map!!! #AmericaFirst #Trump2020 #USA #Conservative #subscribe #Trafalgar #Polls #Florida #Minnesota #Pennsylvania #Michigan #Nevada #
2021-04-12 · * Polls marked with an asterisk are partisan polls. Partisanship is determined by who sponsors the poll, rather than who conducts it. Polls are considered partisan if they’re conducted on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, or PAC, super PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party. De senaste tweetarna från @trafalgar_group
Overall, Trafalgar's Robert Cahaly sees another Trump win.
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Florida Statewide Poll, Trafalgar Group. 2020-10-11 · If you are following the polls on RCP closely, like I have been, you have probably noticed the Trafalgar polls, which are always a few points to the right of everyone else. I was troubled by this 2020-11-01 · Such polls seem to boil down to Rasmussen Reports, which consistently — and in isolation — has a rosier picture for the president nationally than other surveys do, and the Trafalgar Group The Trafalgar Group grabbed attention this weekend when it released a poll showing Donald Trump leading Joe Biden 46.6 percent to 45.2 percent in Michigan and GOP Senate candidate John James 2012-11-10 · Polls by American Research Group and Mason-Dixon also largely missed the mark. Mason-Dixon might be given a pass since it has a decent track record over the longer term, 2020-11-05 · Trafalgar doesn’t have a recent poll for Pennsylvania, the third in the trifecta of rust-belt states that helped give Trump the 2016 election.
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(Trafalgar Group, Arizona poll) That poll was conducted Oct. 6-8, 2020. Trump is leading in Michigan 46.5% to 45.9%. In a stunning reversal, the Trafalgar Group, which has been one of the most reliable pollsters this election season, released its latest polling numbers for next week’s Georgia Senate runoff showing that the two Democratic challengers – Rev. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff – are now leading the incumbent Republican senators – Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue.
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When Fake News does not work, the media turns to Fake Polls. Just as in 2016 with Hillary Clinton, most of the media polls are giving Joe Biden a double-digit 4 Nov 2020 A strong social desirability bias could explain why pre-poll surveys were so widely off the mark. 14 Nov 2020 In 2016, most state polls got the election wrong and it is possible if not likely that they will make the same mistake again. Therefore, we track 16 Nov 2020 Many are convinced that "shy Trump voters" explain why the polls were off in 2020. Polls were even less accurate in 2012, though. 29 Oct 2020 Robert Cahaly foresaw the outcome in 2016. Will 'social acceptability bias' deliver another surprise?
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That poll was conducted Oct. 11-13, 2020. For Arizona, Trafalgar asked the same question of 1,087 likely voters. In response, 47.8% said they would vote for Trump and 43.8% said they would vote for Biden.
(Trafalgar Group, Arizona poll) That poll was conducted Oct. 6-8, 2020. Trump is leading in Michigan 46.5% to 45.9%. In a stunning reversal, the Trafalgar Group, which has been one of the most reliable pollsters this election season, released its latest polling numbers for next week’s Georgia Senate runoff showing that the two Democratic challengers – Rev. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff – are now leading the incumbent Republican senators – Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue. NC Oct 31, 2020 Presidential Poll TOTALS (with leans) Donald Trump 48.6% Joe Biden 46.5% Jo Jorgensen 2.6% Someone Else 1.4% Undecided 1.0% See Report Here NC Oct 2020 U.S. Senate Poll Thom Tillis 48.6% Cal Cunningham 46.8% Shannon Bray 2.2% Kevin Hayes 0.5% Undecided 1.9% See Report Here This isn’t the only poll out there right now showing the two Democrats ahead, either. But because Trafalgar is so well known for Trump-friendly numbers, the fact that they have the two Republicans trailing feels shocking. Our new @trafalgar_group 2020 #GASen #Runoff #poll (12/23-27) shows a lead shift after the week of the #stimulusbill: Runoff In North Carolina, the latest RCP average of polls has Biden up by 0.7 percent, but Rasmussen has Trump in the lead by 1 percent and Trafalgar has Trump leading by 3 percent. In Wisconsin, the latest RCP average of polls has Biden up by 5.5 percent, and so you would be tempted to think that Biden has a lock on that key swing state.